Thursday, April 30, 2009

Skeptical

David Freddoso in the corner frets about a Senate race:

It's not a good sign that Sen. Richard Burr (R, N.C.) leads by just one point in a newly released survey and polls in the mid-30s (35-34) against a hypothetical opponent. But it's not as though he has high negatives. It's just that no one in the state seems to have an opinion of him:

Very Favorable – 14%
Somewhat Favorable – 19.2%
TOTAL FAVORABLE – 33.2%


Somewhat Unfavorable – 8.7%
Very Unfavorable – 8.7%
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE – 17.3%


NO OPINION – 38.7%


NEVER HEARD OF – 10.8%


I'm always skeptical of polls that involved "hypothetical candidates" for one reason: The hypothetical is automatically granted the best characteristics in the mind of the person being polled and carries none of the negatives. Recall that prior to the 2004 presidential election, Bush was getting killed by the so-called hypothetical candidate. When the grim reality of Kerry's campaign ousted the imaginary candidate...eh, not so much.

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