Monday, December 1, 2008

Good News/Bad News

Panel says U.S. has been in a recession since Dec. 2007

Sorry, that was the good news. Good because it means we're already a year into this thing. That means we'll be coming out of it all the sooner, right?

Probably not. See, the "panel" in question, the National Bureau Of Economic Research, has their own definition of recession, and it flies in the face of any traditional definition of the word (except for Paul Krugman, whose sky is falling weekly when there is a Republican president).

See, according to the NBER, a recession begins when we reached an economic peak. That means that, although things were seemingly chugging along nicely around Christmas last year, we were actually in recession because of the downturn that occurred after. I know, it makes no sense to me either because it requires Nostradamus-like foresight to have any predictive capability. How does one know when we've reached a productivity peak except in hindsight?


Stoj said...

I reached my productive peak in Fantasy Football around week 8. I am officially in a recession.

the wolf said...

That's why yer goin' down in the first round!

Actually I have some really bad matchups. I don't expect much out of my squad.

Stoj said...

Dude I've gone out in the first round every year. You're really not an underdog here.